Türkiye Before the 22 October Rate Decision: Reserves, Lira and BuyersTürkiye Before the 22 October Rate Decision: Reserves, Lira and Buyers

Türkiye's central bank meets on 22 October with its policy rate at 37%, a level it has held at every decision this year since January. Between now and then, the data that matters to property buyers is less about the headline rate than about reserves, foreign investor flows and how far the lira is allowed to move. This note sets out what the latest figures show, what is still uncertain, and how a foreign buyer might think about it.

Where policy stands

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has kept its one-week repo rate at 37%, with the overnight lending and borrowing rates at 40% and 35.5%. The most recent decision, on 10 September, was a hold. Bloomberg reported that policymakers were balancing slowing inflation against a jump in crude oil prices, and its headline said the door was open for an October cut.

The published 37% is not the whole story. FXStreet's analysis describes how the bank halted its regular one-week repo auctions on 1 March, pushing banks to borrow at the top of the corridor and lifting the effective funding rate to around 40%. Whether that arrangement is still the effective setting is something to check in the CBRT's own statement on 22 October, rather than assume.

For context on the inflation side, see our earlier note on September inflation and the rate hold.

What the market expects

The calendar in a preview published by Admiral Markets lists the 22 October decision, a scheduled S&P sovereign rating review on 16 October, a reported court hearing in the CHP congress case on 21 October and a US Federal Reserve meeting on 27 and 28 October. It also cites the CBRT's own market participants survey: respondents expect the policy rate to end 2026 near 35.1%, which implies about 200 basis points of cuts across the October and December meetings. The same preview notes that the CBRT decides meeting by meeting, so a survey is an expectation and not a commitment.

Reserves and foreign flows have softened

The most recent weekly data available is for the week ending 2 October. Türkiye Today, citing official figures, reported that CBRT reserves fell $3.8 billion to $167.4 billion in that week, and that foreign investors sold $734.6 million of Turkish assets. The detail matters:

• Gross foreign-exchange reserves fell $1.2 billion to $60.3 billion, while gold reserves dropped $2.6 billion to $107.1 billion, a fall that reflects valuation as well as sales.

• Net reserves rose $407 million to $53.7 billion, but net reserves excluding swaps fell $2 billion to $37.8 billion.

• Foreign investors sold $484.7 million of government bonds and $189.9 million of equities.

• Total bank deposits fell 0.6% on the week, while consumer loans rose 1.2% to ₺7 trillion.

One week is not a trend, and the same report shows residents' foreign-currency deposits rising slightly once exchange-rate effects are removed. It is, however, a reminder of how much reserves were used earlier in the year. FXStreet, citing the CBRT's balance of payments report, says official reserves fell by $43.4 billion in March, the largest one-month decline on record, as the bank defended the lira during the energy-price shock linked to the Middle East conflict.

The lira: managed, not fixed

Policy since 2023 has leaned on a managed currency, with depreciation kept below domestic inflation so that the lira strengthens in real terms. The ECB's published reference rates show the euro buying roughly 55 lira through the first half of October, within a narrow range of about 55.0 to 55.4 between 1 and 14 October. That is a calm stretch, and in early August the rate was around 54.8 before rising above 56 later that month, per the ECB series.

Calm is not a forecast. The analysts quoted by FXStreet differ on whether the bank's tools will hold, and the Admiral Markets preview lists renewed strikes on Iran or new fund withdrawals as risks to volatility. Oil is the main channel: Türkiye imports most of its energy, so a rise in crude feeds into inflation and the current account.

What it means for a property buyer

Three practical points follow, none of them advice.

1. Currency of account. A buyer paying in dollars, euros or dirhams converts at the prevailing rate, and a managed lira that depreciates more slowly than local inflation raises the foreign-currency cost of a given property over time. Price lists, valuation reports and any minimum-investment threshold should be checked in the currency the contract actually uses.

1. Financing costs. With the policy rate at 37%, local mortgage and developer instalment financing remains expensive. If the 22 October meeting delivers a cut, the effect on borrowing costs would be gradual. Developers' instalment plans are priced with this in mind, so compare the implied financing cost, not just the headline price.

1. Timing risk cuts both ways. Waiting for a rate cut or a lira move is a bet on a decision that is not yet taken. A purchase driven by use, rental income or a citizenship or residency application has its own timetable, and that is worth keeping separate from short-term macro calls.

Our recent notes on how house prices have trailed inflation and on budgeting a Turkish purchase cover the price and cost side in more detail.

If citizenship or residency is the goal

Investors considering the Turkish route should note that eligibility turns on the specific rules in force and on the applicant's circumstances, not on the macro backdrop. Multi Mulk advises on Turkish citizenship by investment and offers a free written eligibility review. For comparing Türkiye with other routes, there is a side-by-side comparison of citizenship and residency.

Buyers who want to check a specific property, the title and the valuation before committing can read about investor protection at Multi Mulk, or contact an adviser. Programme rules and thresholds change, so confirm current requirements before acting.

Sources

• Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye — Monetary Policy Committee decision
• Türkiye Today — Turkish central bank reserves fall $3.8B amid $734.6M foreign outflow
• Admiral Markets — Turkey Inflation Rate Preview: September CPI on 5 Oct
• Bloomberg — Turkey Holds Rates on Oil Risks, Opens Door for October Cut
• FXStreet — Türkiye's fight to save the Lira comes at a high cost
• European Central Bank — Turkish lira (TRY) reference rates
• Investing.com — Turkey One-Week Repo Rate calendar

Cover photo: sulox32 on Pixabay.